6.5 Equity Valuation: Concepts and Basic Tools - 6.5 Equity Valuation: Concepts and Basic Tools Explained
Key Concepts
- Intrinsic Value
- Market Value
- Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
- Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
- Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
Intrinsic Value
Intrinsic Value is the true worth of a stock based on its underlying financials, growth prospects, and risk factors. It is calculated using various valuation models and is considered the fair value of the stock. Investors aim to buy stocks below their intrinsic value to achieve potential gains.
Example: A company has projected cash flows of $10 million annually for the next five years. Using a DCF model with a discount rate of 10%, the intrinsic value of the stock is calculated to be $40. If the current market price is $35, the stock is considered undervalued.
Market Value
Market Value is the current price at which a stock is trading in the market. It is influenced by supply and demand dynamics, investor sentiment, and broader market conditions. Market value can fluctuate frequently and may not always reflect the intrinsic value of the stock.
Example: A stock is trading at $50 per share on the stock exchange. This $50 is the market value, representing the collective opinion of buyers and sellers at that moment.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
DCF Analysis is a method used to estimate the value of an investment based on its expected future cash flows. The future cash flows are discounted to their present value using a required rate of return. The sum of these discounted cash flows represents the intrinsic value of the stock.
Example: A company expects to generate $1 million in cash flow next year, $1.2 million in the second year, and $1.5 million in the third year. Using a discount rate of 8%, the present value of these cash flows is calculated, and the sum gives the intrinsic value of the stock.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
The P/E Ratio is a valuation metric that compares a company's current stock price to its earnings per share (EPS). It indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings. A higher P/E ratio suggests higher growth expectations, while a lower P/E ratio may indicate undervaluation.
Example: A company has a stock price of $50 and earnings per share of $5. The P/E ratio is 10 ($50/$5). If the industry average P/E ratio is 15, this company may be considered undervalued relative to its peers.
Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
The DDM is a method used to value a stock based on the present value of its expected future dividends. It assumes that the value of a stock is the sum of all its future dividend payments, discounted to the present. The model is particularly useful for companies that pay regular dividends.
Example: A company pays an annual dividend of $2 per share and is expected to grow at a rate of 5% annually. Using a required rate of return of 10%, the present value of these future dividends is calculated, giving the intrinsic value of the stock.