6 2 Estimate Costs
Estimate Costs Explained
Estimate Costs is a critical process in project management that involves developing an approximation of the monetary resources needed to complete project activities. This process ensures that the project budget is realistic and achievable. Here, we will delve into five key concepts of Estimate Costs: Analogous Estimating, Parametric Estimating, Bottom-Up Estimating, Three-Point Estimating, and Reserve Analysis.
1. Analogous Estimating
Analogous Estimating, also known as top-down estimating, uses the cost of a previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project. This method is useful when there is limited information about the current project but a reliable historical data set is available.
Example: If a company has previously built a similar-sized office building for $1 million, they might use this historical data to estimate the cost of a new office building. Adjustments can be made for differences in scope, location, and other factors.
2. Parametric Estimating
Parametric Estimating uses statistical relationships between historical data and other variables to calculate an estimate. This method involves using project characteristics (parameters) to make more accurate cost predictions.
Example: In a software development project, the cost per line of code might be a parameter. If the project involves 10,000 lines of code and the cost per line is $5, the total cost estimate would be $50,000.
3. Bottom-Up Estimating
Bottom-Up Estimating involves estimating individual work items or activities and then summing them to get a total project cost. This method is more detailed and time-consuming but provides a more accurate estimate.
Example: For a construction project, the cost of materials, labor, and equipment for each activity (e.g., laying foundations, erecting structures) is estimated separately. These individual costs are then summed to get the total project cost.
4. Three-Point Estimating
Three-Point Estimating involves calculating an estimate using three different values: the most likely cost, the optimistic cost, and the pessimistic cost. This method helps in accounting for uncertainty and risk in the cost estimate.
Example: For a marketing campaign, the most likely cost is $50,000, the optimistic cost is $40,000, and the pessimistic cost is $70,000. The three-point estimate might be calculated as the average of these values, providing a more realistic cost estimate.
5. Reserve Analysis
Reserve Analysis involves adding contingency reserves or management reserves to the cost estimate to account for uncertainty and risk. Contingency reserves are added for known risks, while management reserves are added for unknown risks.
Example: In a construction project, a contingency reserve of 10% might be added to the cost estimate to account for potential delays and cost overruns. Additionally, a management reserve of 5% might be added to handle unforeseen risks.